Modeling the spatial risk of malaria through probability distribution of Anopheles maculipennis s.l. and imported cases.

AbstractMalaria remains one of the most important infectious diseases globally due to its high incidence and mortality rates. The influx of infected cases from endemic to non-endemic malaria regions like Europe has resulted in a public health concern over sporadic local outbreaks. This is facilitated by the continued presence of competent Anopheles vectors in non-endemic countries.We modeled the potential distribution of the main malaria vector across Spain using the ensemble of eight modeling techniques based on environmental parameters and the Anopheles maculipennis s.l. presence/absence data collected from 2000 to 2020. We then combined this map with the number of imported malaria cases in each municipality to detect the geographic hot spots with a higher risk of local malaria transmission.The malaria vector occurred preferentially in irrigated lands characterized by warm climate conditions and moderate annual precipitation. Some areas surrounding irrigated lands in northern Spain (e.g., Zaragoza, Logroño), mainland areas (e.g., Madrid, Toledo) and in the South (e.g., Huelva), presented a significant likelihood of A. maculipennis s.l. occurrence, with a large overlap with the presence of imported cases of malaria.While the risk of malaria re-emergence in Spain is low, it is not evenly distributed throughout the country. The four recorded local cases of mosquito-borne transmission occurred in areas with a high overlap of imported cases and mosquito presence. Integrating mosquito distribution with human incidence cases provides an effective tool for the quantification of large-scale geographic variation in transmission risk and pinpointing priority areas for targeted surveillance and prevention.

Reconstructing the post-glacial spread of the sand fly Phlebotomus mascittii Grassi, 1908 (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Europe.

Phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Phlebotominae) are the principal vectors of Leishmania spp. (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae). In Central Europe, Phlebotomus mascittii is the predominant species, but largely understudied. To better understand factors driving its current distribution, we infer patterns of genetic diversity by testing for signals of population expansion based on two mitochondrial genes and model current and past climate and habitat suitability for seven post-glacial maximum periods, taking 19 climatic variables into account. Consequently, we elucidate their connections by environmental-geographical network analysis. Most analyzed populations share a main haplotype tracing back to a single glacial maximum refuge area on the Mediterranean coasts of South France, which is supported by network analysis. The rapid range expansion of Ph. mascittii likely started in the early mid-Holocene epoch until today and its spread possibly followed two routes. The first one was through northern France to Germany and then Belgium, and the second across the Ligurian coast through present-day Slovenia to Austria, toward the northern Balkans. Here we present a combined approach to reveal glacial refugia and post-glacial spread of Ph. mascittii and observed discrepancies between the modelled and the current known distribution might reveal yet overlooked populations and potential further spread.

The use of path analysis to determine effects of environmental factors on the adult seasonality of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) vector species in Spain.

Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are the main vectors of livestock diseases such as bluetongue (BT) which mainly affect sheep and cattle. In Spain, bluetongue virus (BTV) is transmitted by several Culicoides taxa, including Culicoides imicola, Obsoletus complex, Culicoides newsteadi and Culicoides pulicaris that vary in seasonality and distribution, affecting the distribution and dynamics of BT outbreaks. Path analysis is useful for separating direct and indirect, biotic and abiotic determinants of species' population performance and is ideal for understanding the sensitivity of adult Culicoides dynamics to multiple environmental drivers. Start, end of season and length of overwintering of adult Culicoides were analysed across 329 sites in Spain sampled from 2005 to 2010 during the National Entomosurveillance Program for BTV with path analysis, to determine the direct and indirect effects of land use, climate and host factor variables. Culicoides taxa had species-specific responses to environmental variables. While the seasonality of adult C. imicola was strongly affected by topography, temperature, cover of agro-forestry and sclerophyllous vegetation, rainfall, livestock density, photoperiod in autumn and the abundance of Culicoides females, Obsoletus complex species seasonality was affected by land-use variables such as cover of natural grassland and broad-leaved forest. Culicoides female abundance was the most explanatory variable for the seasonality of C. newsteadi, while C. pulicaris showed that temperature during winter and the photoperiod in November had a strong effect on the start of the season and the length of overwinter period of this species. These results indicate that the seasonal vector-free period (SVFP) in Spain will vary between competent vector taxa and geographic locations, dependent on the different responses of each taxa to environmental conditions.

Multiple invasions, Wolbachia and human-aided transport drive the genetic variability of Aedes albopictus in the Iberian Peninsula.

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is one of the most invasive species in the world. Native to the tropical forests of Southeast Asia, over the past 30 years it has rapidly spread throughout tropical and temperate regions of the world. Its dramatic expansion has resulted in public health concerns as a consequence of its vector competence for at least 16 viruses. Previous studies showed that Ae. albopictus spread has been facilitated by human-mediated transportation, but much remains unknown about how this has affected its genetic attributes. Here we examined the factors that contributed to shaping the current genetic constitution of Ae. albopictus in the Iberian Peninsula, where the species was first found in 2004, by combining population genetics and Bayesian modelling. We found that both mitochondrial and nuclear DNA markers showed a lack of genetic structure and the presence of worldwide dominant haplotypes, suggesting regular introductions from abroad. Mitochondrial DNA showed little genetic diversity compared to nuclear DNA, likely explained by infection with maternally transmitted bacteria of the genus Wolbachia. Multilevel models revealed that greater mosquito fluxes (estimated from commuting patterns and tiger mosquito population distribution) and spatial proximity between sampling sites were associated with lower nuclear genetic distance, suggesting that rapid short- and medium-distance dispersal is facilitated by humans through vehicular traffic. This study highlights the significant role of human transportation in shaping the genetic attributes of Ae. albopictus and promoting regional gene flow, and underscores the need for a territorially integrated surveillance across scales of this disease-carrying mosquito.

Phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera, Psychodidae) from Spain: an updated checklist and extended distributions.

Phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) are the natural vectors of Leishmania spp. (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae) and phleboviruses (Bunyavirales: Phenuiviridae). In Spain, these vectors appear to be increasing their geographical distribution and have serious repercussions on public and veterinary health, encouraging studies of sand flies and their associated pathogens. An up-to-date and easily accessible compendium of current and historical data on their presence and detailed distribution is a crucial step towards the development and implementation of appropriate preventive strategies. A checklist on the presence and distribution of sand flies in Spain is compiled from data extracted from a comprehensive review of scientific literature published between 1909 and 2021 and our new records on the presence of sand flies specimens collected under the entomological surveillance of bluetongue vectors from the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fishery and Food (MAPA) during the period 2004-2021. In total, 13 Spanish species of sand flies (two of them with controversial status) belonging to two genera and six subgenera are presented in this updated checklist, including new distribution data for seven species, among which several stand out as confirmed or suspected vectors of Leishmaniainfantum: Phlebotomusariasi, Ph.langeroni, Ph.mascittii, and Ph.perniciosus.

AIMSurv: First pan-European harmonized surveillance of Aedes invasive mosquito species of relevance for human vector-borne diseases.

Human and animal vector-borne diseases, particularly mosquito-borne diseases, are emerging or re-emerging worldwide. Six Aedes invasive mosquito (AIM) species were introduced to Europe since the 1970s: Aedes aegypti, Ae. albopictus, Ae. japonicus, Ae. koreicus, Ae. atropalpus and Ae. triseriatus. Here, we report the results of AIMSurv2020, the first pan-European surveillance effort for AIMs. Implemented by 42 volunteer teams from 24 countries. And presented in the form of a dataset named "AIMSurv Aedes Invasive Mosquito species harmonized surveillance in Europe. AIM-COST Action. Project ID: CA17108". AIMSurv2020 harmonizes field surveillance methodologies for sampling different AIMs life stages, frequency and minimum length of sampling period, and data reporting. Data include minimum requirements for sample types and recommended requirements for those teams with more resources. Data are published as a Darwin Core archive in the Global Biodiversity Information Facility- Spain, comprising a core file with 19,130 records (EventID) and an occurrences file with 19,743 records (OccurrenceID). AIM species recorded in AIMSurv2020 were Ae. albopictus, Ae. japonicus and Ae. koreicus, as well as native mosquito species.

Phlebovirus-associated diseases transmitted by phlebotominae in Spain: Are we at risk?

The genera Phlebovirus transmitted by Diptera belonging to the Psychodidae family are a cause of self-limited febrile syndrome in the Mediterranean basin in summer and autumn. Toscana virus can also cause meningitis and meningoencephalitis. In Spain, Toscana, Granada, Naples, Sicily, Arbia and Arrabida-like viruses have been detected. The almost widespread distribution of Phlebotomus genus vectors, and especially Phlebotomus perniciosus, in which several of these viruses have been detected, makes it very likely that there will be regular human infections in our country, with this risk considered moderate for Toscana virus and low for the other ones, in areas with the highest vector activity. Most of the infections would be undiagnosed, while only Toscana virus would have a greater impact due to the potential severity of the illness.

Enfermedades asociadas a flebovirus trasmitidos por flebótomos: ¿qué riesgo tenemos en España? / Phlebovirus-associated diseases transmitted by phlebotominae in Spain: Are we at risk?

Los virus del género Phlebovirus, transmitidos por dípteros de la familia Psychodidae, son una causa de síndrome febril autolimitado durante el verano-otoño en los países mediterráneos. En el caso del virus Toscana, pueden ser causa de meningitis y meningoencefalitis. En España se ha detectado la presencia de los virus Toscana, Granada, Nápoles, Sicilia, Arbia y Arrabida-like. La presencia casi generalizada de vectores del género Phlebotomus, especialmente de Phlebotomus perniciosus, en los que se han detectado varios de estos virus, hace muy probable que aparezcan de manera regular infecciones en humanos en nuestro país, siendo este riesgo moderado para el virus Toscana y bajo para el resto, en las zonas con mayor actividad del vector. La mayor parte de las enfermedades pasarían inadvertidas y solo el virus Toscana puede tener un mayor impacto por la aparición de casos graves.(AU)

The genera Phlebovirus transmitted by Diptera belonging to the Psychodidae family are a cause of self-limited febrile syndrome in the Mediterranean basin in summer and autumn. Toscana virus can also cause meningitis and meningoencephalitis. In Spain, Toscana, Granada, Naples, Sicily, Arbia and Arrabida-like viruses have been detected. The almost widespread distribution of Phlebotomus genus vectors, and especially Phlebotomus perniciosus, in which several of these viruses have been detected, makes it very likely that there will be regular human infections in our country, with this risk considered moderate for Toscana virus and low for the other ones, in areas with the highest vector activity. Most of the infections would be undiagnosed, while only Toscana virus would have a greater impact due to the potential severity of the illness.(AU)

A study of the composition of the Obsoletus complex and genetic diversity of Culicoides obsoletus populations in Spain.

BACKGROUND: The Culicoides obsoletus species complex (henceforth 'Obsoletus complex') is implicated in the transmission of several arboviruses that can cause severe disease in livestock, such as bluetongue, African horse sickness, epizootic hemorrhagic disease and Schmallenberg disease. Thus, this study aimed to increase our knowledge of the composition and genetic diversity of the Obsoletus complex by partial sequencing of the cytochrome c oxidase I (cox1) gene in poorly studied areas of Spain. METHODS: A study of C. obsoletus populations was carried out using a single-tube multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay that was designed to differentiate the Obsoletus complex sibling species Culicoides obsoletus and Culicoides scoticus, based on the partial amplification of the cox1 gene, as well as cox1 georeferenced sequences from Spain available at GenBank. We sampled 117 insects of the Obsoletus complex from six locations and used a total of 238 sequences of C. obsoletus (ss) individuals (sampled here, and from GenBank) from 14 sites in mainland Spain, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands for genetic diversity and phylogenetic analyses. RESULTS: We identified 90 C. obsoletus (ss), 19 Culicoides scoticus and five Culicoides montanus midges from the six collection sites sampled, and found that the genetic diversity of C. obsoletus (ss) were higher in mainland Spain than in the Canary Islands. The multiplex PCR had limitations in terms of specificity, and no cryptic species within the Obsoletus complex were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Within the Obsoletus complex, C. obsoletus (ss) was the predominant species in the analyzed sites of mainland Spain. Information about the species composition of the Obsoletus complex could be of relevance for future epidemiological studies when specific aspects of the vector competence and capacity of each species have been identified. Our results indicate that the intraspecific divergence is higher in C. obsoletus (ss) northern populations, and demonstrate the isolation of C. obsoletus (ss) populations of the Canary Islands.

At the tip of an iceberg: citizen science and active surveillance collaborating to broaden the known distribution of Aedes japonicus in Spain.

BACKGROUND: Active surveillance aimed at the early detection of invasive mosquito species is usually focused on seaports and airports as points of entry, and along road networks as dispersion paths. In a number of cases, however, the first detections of colonizing populations are made by citizens, either because the species has already moved beyond the implemented active surveillance sites or because there is no surveillance in place. This was the case of the first detection in 2018 of the Asian bush mosquito, Aedes japonicus, in Asturias (northern Spain) by the citizen science platform Mosquito Alert. METHODS: The collaboration between Mosquito Alert, the Ministry of Health, local authorities and academic researchers resulted in a multi-source surveillance combining active field sampling with broader temporal and spatial citizen-sourced data, resulting in a more flexible and efficient surveillance strategy. RESULTS: Between 2018 and 2020, the joint efforts of administrative bodies, academic teams and citizen-sourced data led to the discovery of this species in northern regions of Spain such as Cantabria and the Basque Country. This raised the estimated area of occurrence of Ae. japonicus from < 900 km2 in 2018 to > 7000 km2 in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: This population cluster is geographically isolated from any other population in Europe, which raises questions about its origin, path of introduction and dispersal means, while also highlighting the need to enhance surveillance systems by closely combining crowd-sourced surveillance with public health and mosquito control agencies' efforts, from local to continental scales. This multi-actor approach for surveillance (either passive and active) shows high potential efficiency in the surveillance of other invasive mosquito species, and specifically the major vector Aedes aegypti which is already present in some parts of Europe.

Aedes albopictus diversity and relationships in south-western Europe and Brazil by rDNA/mtDNA and phenotypic analyses: ITS-2, a useful marker for spread studies.

BACKGROUND: Aedes albopictus is a very invasive mosquito, which has recently colonized tropical and temperate regions worldwide. Of concern is its role in the spread of emerging or re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases. Ae. albopictus from south-western Europe and Brazil were studied to infer genetic and phenetic diversity at intra-individual, intra-population and inter-population levels, and to analyse its spread. METHODS: Genotyping was made by rDNA 5.8S-ITS-2 and mtDNA cox1 sequencing to assess haplotype and nucleotide diversity, genetic distances and phylogenetic networks. Male and female phenotyping included combined landmark-and outlined-based geometric morphometrics of wing size and shape. RESULTS: Specimens from seven populations from Spain, France and Brazil provided 12 cox1 and 162 5.8S-ITS-2 haplotypes, with great genetic variability difference between both markers (0.9% vs 31.2%). Five cox1 haplotypes were shared with other countries, mainly Italy, USA and China, but none was shared between Europe and Brazil. The 5.8S-ITS-2 showed 2-7 intra-individual (mean 4.7) and 16-34 intra-/inter-population haplotypes (24.7), including haplotypes shared between Spain, France and Brazil. A 4.3% of ITS-2 haplotypes were shared, mainly with Italy, USA and Thailand, evidencing worldwide spread and introductions from areas where recent outbreaks of Ae. albopictus-transmitted pathogens occurred. Wing size showed sex differences. Wing shape distinguished between Brazilian and European specimens. Both genetic and morphometric markers showed differences between insular Spain and continental Spain, France and Brazil. CONCLUSIONS: ITS-2 proves to be a useful marker to assess Ae. albopictus spread, providing pronouncedly more information than cox1, including intra-individual, intra-population and inter-population levels, furnishing a complete overview of the evolutionary exchanges followed by this mosquito. Wing morphometry proves to be a useful phenotyping marker, allowing to distinguish different populations at the level of both male and female specimens. Results indicate the need for periodic surveillance monitorings to verify that no Ae. albopictus with high virus transmission capacity is introduced into Europe.

Mosquito fauna in Extremadura (western Spain): Updated catalog with new records, distribution maps, and medical relevance.

An important element of vector control and surveillance of mosquito-borne diseases is updated information on vector species distribution. The aim of this study was to collect available information about mosquito species reported in Extremadura between 1920 and 2020 and create a catalog that would combine both published data and our recent field identifications. An exhaustive list is hereby presented, including species status and detailed distribution maps at a municipal level as well as their importance for public health. A total of 33 species, classified into five genera: Anopheles (five species), Aedes (14), Culex (nine), Culiseta (four), and Orthopodomyia (one) has been recorded, including 31 autochthonous, one invasive, Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus, and one disappeared since 1953, Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti. For the first time in Extremadura, we report the presence of important vectors such as Aedes (Aedimorphus) vexans vexans and Culex (Culex) perexiguus, and the new record of six species in the province of Badajoz, namely: Aedes (Dahliana) echinus, Aedes (Fredwardsius) vittatus, Aedes (Ochlerotatus) berlandi, Aedes (Ochlerotatus) pulcritarsis, Culex (Culex) mimeticus, and Culiseta (Culiseta) subochrea. Nineteen of these species are potential vectors of medical and veterinary relevance.

Environmental Drivers of Adult Seasonality and Abundance of Biting Midges Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), Bluetongue Vector Species in Spain.

Bluetongue is a viral disease affecting wild and domestic ruminants transmitted by several species of biting midges Culicoides Latreille. The phenology of these insects were analyzed in relation to potential environmental drivers. Data from 329 sites in Spain were analyzed using Bayesian Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) approaches. The effects of environmental factors on adult female seasonality were contrasted. Obsoletus complex species (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) were the most prevalent across sites, followed by Culicoides newsteadi Austen (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Activity of female Obsoletus complex species was longest in sites at low elevation, with warmer spring average temperatures and precipitation, as well as in sites with high abundance of cattle. The length of the Culicoides imicola Kieffer (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) female adult season was also longest in sites at low elevation with higher coverage of broad-leaved vegetation. Long adult seasons of C. newsteadi were found in sites with warmer autumns and higher precipitation, high abundance of sheep. Culicoides pulicaris (Linnaeus) (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) had longer adult periods in sites with a greater number of accumulated degree days over 10°C during winter. These results demonstrate the eco-climatic and seasonal differences among these four taxa in Spain, which may contribute to determining sites with suitable environmental circumstances for each particular species to inform assessments of the risk of Bluetongue virus outbreaks in this region.

Identifying Spanish Areas at More Risk of Monthly BTV Transmission with a Basic Reproduction Number Approach.

Bluetongue virus (BTV) causes a disease that is endemic in Spain and its two major biological vector species, C. imicola and the Obsoletus complex species, differ greatly in their ecology and distribution. Understanding the seasonality of BTV transmission in risk areas is key to improving surveillance and control programs, as well as to better understand the pathogen transmission networks between wildlife and livestock. Here, monthly risk transmission maps were generated using risk categories based on well-known BTV R0 equations and predicted abundances of the two most relevant vectors in Spain. Previously, Culicoides spp. predicted abundances in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands were obtained using remote sensing data and random forest machine learning algorithm. Risk transmission maps were externally assessed with the estimated date of infection of BTV-1 and BTV-4 historical outbreaks. Our results highlight the differences in risk transmission during April-October, June-August being the period with higher R0 values. Likewise, a natural barrier has been identified between northern and central-southern areas at risk that may hamper BTV spread between them. Our results can be relevant to implement risk-based interventions for the prevention, control and surveillance of BTV and other diseases shared between livestock and wildlife host populations.

Correction to: The tree that hides the forest: cryptic diversity and phylogenetic relationships in the Palaearctic vector Obsoletus/Scoticus complex (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) at the European level.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.

The tree that hides the forest: cryptic diversity and phylogenetic relationships in the Palaearctic vector Obsoletus/Scoticus Complex (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) at the European level.

BACKGROUND: Culicoides obsoletus is an abundant and widely distributed Holarctic biting midge species, involved in the transmission of bluetongue virus (BTV) and Schmallenberg virus (SBV) to wild and domestic ruminants. Females of this vector species are often reported jointly with two morphologically very close species, C. scoticus and C. montanus, forming the Obsoletus/Scoticus Complex. Recently, cryptic diversity within C. obsoletus was reported in geographically distant sites. Clear delineation of species and characterization of genetic variability is mandatory to revise their taxonomic status and assess the vector role of each taxonomic entity. Our objectives were to characterize and map the cryptic diversity within the Obsoletus/Scoticus Complex. METHODS: Portion of the cox1 mitochondrial gene of 3763 individuals belonging to the Obsoletus/Scoticus Complex was sequenced. Populations from 20 countries along a Palaearctic Mediterranean transect covering Scandinavia to Canary islands (North to South) and Canary islands to Turkey (West to East) were included. Genetic diversity based on cox1 barcoding was supported by 16S rDNA mitochondrial gene sequences and a gene coding for ribosomal 28S rDNA. Species delimitation using a multi-marker methodology was used to revise the current taxonomic scheme of the Obsoletus/Scoticus Complex. RESULTS: Our analysis showed the existence of three phylogenetic clades (C. obsoletus clade O2, C. obsoletus clade dark and one not yet named and identified) within C. obsoletus. These analyses also revealed two intra-specific clades within C. scoticus and raised questions about the taxonomic status of C. montanus. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, our study provides the first genetic characterization of the Obsoletus/Scoticus Complex on a large geographical scale and allows a revision of the current taxonomic classification for an important group of vector species of livestock viruses in the Palaearctic region.

Surveillance of a Pest Through a Public Health Information System: The Case of the Blackfly (Simulium erythrocephalum) in Zaragoza (Spain) during 2009-2015.

Background: Animals and people in many Spanish regions are increasingly being affected by blackfly bites in the last decade. Because of blackflies, the city of Zaragoza has become in recent years a paradigm of discomfort in Europe, with thousands of citizens affected. The OMI-AP system (Stacks, Barcelona, Spain) implemented by the Government of Aragón, a software that manages the electronic medical history of all patients, has been evaluated in order to document the increase of insect bite recorded by the primary care consultations in Zaragoza after the first outbreak of blackflies occurred in 2011. Methods: An observational, ecological and longitudinal study of insect bites recorded at the primary care consultations was carried out in primary care during the period 2009-2015. Results: The incidence of medical consultations by insect bites in Basic Health Areas (BHA) near to rivers is higher than the furthest BHA. Rural BHA are more affected by insect bites than the urban ones. The increase of medical assistance due to insect bites in Zaragoza since 2011 is correlated with the blackflies bites. Conclusions: This tool was very useful to describe the initial stage of this public health problem. It could be used for guiding public health responses in terms of surveillance and management of this pest.

A model for the assessment of bluetongue virus serotype 1 persistence in Spain.

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus of ruminants that has been circulating in Europe continuously for more than two decades and has become endemic in some countries such as Spain. Spain is ideal for BTV epidemiological studies since BTV outbreaks from different sources and serotypes have occurred continuously there since 2000; BTV-1 has been reported there from 2007 to 2017. Here we develop a model for BTV-1 endemic scenario to estimate the risk of an area becoming endemic, as well as to identify the most influential factors for BTV-1 persistence. We created abundance maps at 1-km2 spatial resolution for the main vectors in Spain, Culicoides imicola and Obsoletus and Pulicaris complexes, by combining environmental satellite data with occurrence models and a random forest machine learning algorithm. The endemic model included vector abundance and host-related variables (farm density). The three most relevant variables in the endemic model were the abundance of C. imicola and Obsoletus complex and density of goat farms (AUC 0.86); this model suggests that BTV-1 is more likely to become endemic in central and southwestern regions of Spain. It only requires host- and vector-related variables to identify areas at greater risk of becoming endemic for bluetongue. Our results highlight the importance of suitable Culicoides spp. prediction maps for bluetongue epidemiological studies and decision-making about control and eradication measures.

Modelling the monthly abundance of Culicoides biting midges in nine European countries using Random Forests machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Culicoides biting midges transmit viruses resulting in disease in ruminants and equids such as bluetongue, Schmallenberg disease and African horse sickness. In the past decades, these diseases have led to important economic losses for farmers in Europe. Vector abundance is a key factor in determining the risk of vector-borne disease spread and it is, therefore, important to predict the abundance of Culicoides species involved in the transmission of these pathogens. The objectives of this study were to model and map the monthly abundances of Culicoides in Europe. METHODS: We obtained entomological data from 904 farms in nine European countries (Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Poland, Denmark, Sweden and Norway) from 2007 to 2013. Using environmental and climatic predictors from satellite imagery and the machine learning technique Random Forests, we predicted the monthly average abundance at a 1 km2 resolution. We used independent test sets for validation and to assess model performance. RESULTS: The predictive power of the resulting models varied according to month and the Culicoides species/ensembles predicted. Model performance was lower for winter months. Performance was higher for the Obsoletus ensemble, followed by the Pulicaris ensemble, while the model for Culicoides imicola showed a poor performance. Distribution and abundance patterns corresponded well with the known distributions in Europe. The Random Forests model approach was able to distinguish differences in abundance between countries but was not able to predict vector abundance at individual farm level. CONCLUSIONS: The models and maps presented here represent an initial attempt to capture large scale geographical and temporal variations in Culicoides abundance. The models are a first step towards producing abundance inputs for R0 modelling of Culicoides-borne infections at a continental scale.